COVID-19 in India: Epidemic, Inequality and Propaganda

Dr Murad Banaji (Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford)
Tuesday, 22 October 2024
Science Seminar Series

The story of COVID-19 in India is still slowly being unravelled. Our understanding so far comes from a critical analysis of various data sources, including official statistics and survey data. These data can only be understood by looking closely at the surrounding context, which includes highly uneven disease surveillance, extreme inequality and marginalisation, and obfuscation - even disinformation - from government.

Despite the complexities, various aspects of India's COVID story, including the high mortality and uneven impacts by gender, religion and caste, have become clear as more data has become available. The fact that we have an increasingly coherent understanding of this story is, to some extent, a victory of science and mathematics over propaganda. I will present, briefly, my understanding of India's COVID-19 epidemic based on available data and modelling, and touch on some questions which remain unresolved.