This seminar will look at major political variables and the likelihood of their resulting in trouble or turbulence. These include: Will Brexit happen and what will be the effect on the EU? What problems do European nations face (immigration, security and populism)? Will Putin become more or less aggressive to the West and will his popularity at home continue to fall? Will there be an end to civil war in Syria and how will turbulence throughout the Middle East affect key countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Libya? Will Turkey drift away from Nato? Will tensions between Pakistan and India increase and how will nationalism drive politics in both countries? Is China on a confrontation course with America and will a trade war affect the global economy? Will Trump be re-elected and can the world learn to work with him? And finally looking at stability in Africa, social media and politics and the challenge of the environment. 

Michael Binyon has been an editorial writer, columnist and foreign correspondent for The Times since 1971. After graduating from Cambridge University with a degree in English and Arabic, he spent a year teaching English for the British Council in Minsk, USSR, in 1967 and in 1968 began as a reporter on The Times Educational Supplement, moving to the BBC Arabic Service in 1970 and becoming a founder reporter of The Times Higher Education Supplement in 1971. He speaks French, German, Russian and some Arabic and is a frequent broadcaster on BBC radio and television, and also appears regularly on French, German, Russian, Canadian and Middle Eastern radio and television as well as on Monocle24 radio. For 15 years he was based overseas, reporting for the paper from Moscow, Washington, Bonn and Brussels as well as covering the 1973 Middle East war. He returned to London to be diplomatic editor in 1991 and became the chief foreign editorial writer in 2000. A winner of two British journalism awards, he wrote "Life in Russia" in 1983 and was awarded an OBE in 2000. He retired from The Times staff in 2009, but has continued to write regularly for the paper and for other publications.

(Seminars start at 5.00 p.m.)